|Title:||A critique of the Richardson equations||Authors:||Beckmann, Klaus Bertram
|Language:||eng||Issue Date:||2016||Publisher:||Universitätsbibliothek der HSU/UniBwH||Document Type:||Working Paper||Journal / Series / Working Paper (HSU):||Diskussionspapier / Helmut-Schmidt-Universität / Fächergruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre||Volume:||162||Publisher Place:||Hamburg||Abstract:||
We review, and extend, one of the classic dynamic models of conflict in economics by Richardson (1919) and Boulding (1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peace-keeping, yielding new dynamic patterns of conflict. In addition, we explore an incrementalist version of the model as well as a stochastic one and show how this affects its theoretical stability properties. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998-2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that the simulations fail to converge in a large number of cases, and that one important prediction of the model is not borne out by the data. We therefore conclude that the Boulding-Richardson equations are of limited use for modelling (de-)escalation in dynamic conflict.
|Organization Units (connected with the publication):||VWL, insb. Ökonomik des öffentlichen Sektors||URL:||http://hdl.handle.net/10419/146089|
|Appears in Collections:||3 - Reported Publications|
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