Title: A critique of the Richardson equations
Authors: Beckmann, Klaus 
Gattke, Susan 
Lechner, Anja 
Reimer, Lennart 
Affiliation: Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Public Economics
VWL, insb. Ökonomik des öffentlichen Sektors
Language: en
Subject (DDC): Wirtschaft
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: Universitätsbibliothek der HSU/UniBwH
Document Type: Working Paper
Journal / Series / Working Paper (HSU): Diskussionspapier / Helmut-Schmidt-Universität / Fächergruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre 
Volume: 162
Publisher: Helmut-Schmidt-Universität / Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg
Publisher Place: Hamburg
Abstract: 
We review, and extend, one of the classic dynamic models of conflict in economics by Richardson (1919) and Boulding (1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peace-keeping, yielding new dynamic patterns of conflict. In addition, we explore an incrementalist version of the model as well as a stochastic one and show how this affects its theoretical stability properties. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998-2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that the simulations fail to converge in a large number of cases, and that one important prediction of the model is not borne out by the data. We therefore conclude that the Boulding-Richardson equations are of limited use for modelling (de-)escalation in dynamic conflict.
Organization Units (connected with the publication): Fakultät für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften 
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/146089
https://ub.hsu-hh.de/DB=1.8/XMLPRS=N/PPN?PPN=849687667
https://ub.hsu-hh.de/DB=1.8/XMLPRS=N/PPN?PPN=853472866
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