Quantitative Methoden der Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Loading...
Status
Active Organization Unit
Director
Parent organisation
1 results
Settings
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
- PublicationMetadata onlyEvaluating Approximate Point Forecasting of Count ProcessesIn forecasting count processes, practitioners often ignore the discreteness of counts and compute forecasts based on Gaussian approximations instead. For both central and non-central point forecasts, and for various types of count processes, the performance of such approximate point forecasts is analyzed. The considered data-generating processes include different autoregressive schemes with varying model orders, count models with overdispersion or zero inflation, counts with a bounded range, and counts exhibiting trend or seasonality. We conclude that Gaussian forecast approximations should be avoided.