Title: Evaluating Approximate Point Forecasting of Count Processes
Authors: Homburg, Annika
Weiß, Christian H. 
Alwan, Layth C.
Frahm, Gabriel 
Göb, Rainer
Language: eng
Issue Date: 2019
Publisher: MDPI
Document Type: Article
Source: Enthalten in: Econometrics. - Basel : MDPI, 2013. - Online-Ressource. - Bd. 7.2019, 3/30, insges. 28 S.
Journal / Series / Working Paper (HSU): Econometrics
Volume: 7
Issue: 3/30
Publisher Place: Basel
Abstract: 
In forecasting count processes, practitioners often ignore the discreteness of counts and compute forecasts based on Gaussian approximations instead. For both central and non-central point forecasts, and for various types of count processes, the performance of such approximate point forecasts is analyzed. The considered data-generating processes include different autoregressive schemes with varying model orders, count models with overdispersion or zero inflation, counts with a bounded range, and counts exhibiting trend or seasonality. We conclude that Gaussian forecast approximations should be avoided.
Organization Units (connected with the publication): Quantitative Methoden der Wirtschaftswissenschaften 
Angewandte Stochastik und Risikomanagement 
Publisher DOI: 10.3390/econometrics7030030
Appears in Collections:3 - Publication references (without fulltext)

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