Title: Right and yet wrong
Subtitle: a spatio temporal evaluation of Germany's COVID-19 containment policy
Authors: Berlemann, Michael 
Haustein, Erik 
Language: en
Keywords: Universitätsbibliographie;Evaluation 2020
Issue Date: 2020
Publisher: CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute
Document Type: Working Paper
Journal / Series / Working Paper (HSU): CESifo working papers 
Volume: 8446
Pages: 27 Seiten
Publisher Place: München
Abstract: 
In order to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control, most governments around the globe have adopted some sort of containment policies. In the light of the enormous costs of these policies, in many countries highly controversial discussions on the adequacy of the chosen policies evolved. We contribute to this discussion by evaluating three waves of containment measures adopted by the German government. Based on a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic model we show that in retrospective, only the first wave of containment measures clearly contributed to flattening the curve of new infections. However, a real-time analysis using the same empirical model reveals that based on the then available information, the adoption of additional containment measures was warranted. Moreover our spatio-temporal analysis shows that a onesize-fits-all policy, as it was adopted in Germany on the early stages of the epidemic, is not optimal.
Organization Units (connected with the publication): VWL, insb. Politische Ökonomik und empirische Wirtschaftsforschung 
URL: https://ub.hsu-hh.de/DB=1.8/XMLPRS=N/PPN?PPN=1725843307
http://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8446.pdf
Appears in Collections:2020

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