Detailed forecast for the development of electric trucks and tractor units and their power demand in Hamburg by 2050
Publication date
2025-07-14
Document type
Forschungsartikel
Organisational unit
Publisher
MDPI
Series or journal
Energies
ISSN
Periodical volume
18
Periodical issue
14
Article ID
3719
Peer-reviewed
✅
Part of the university bibliography
✅
Funding(s)
Language
English
Keyword
Electric trucks
Electric tractor units
Ramp-up scenarios
Geographical load distribution
Power demand forecast
dtec.bw
Abstract
The global urgency to mitigate climate change by reducing transport-related emissions drives the accelerated electrification of road freight transport. This paper presents a comprehensive meta-study forecasting the development and corresponding power demand of electric trucks and tractor units in Hamburg up to 2050, emphasizing the shift from conventional to electric vehicles. Utilizing historical registration data and existing commercial and institutional reports from 2007 to 2024, the analysis estimates future distributions of electric heavy-duty vehicles across Hamburg’s 103 city quarters. Distinct approaches are evaluated to explore potential heavy-duty vehicle distribution in the city, employing Mixed-Integer Linear Programming to quantify and minimize distribution uncertainties. Power demand forecasts at this detailed geographical level enable effective infrastructure planning and strategy development. The findings serve as a foundation for Hamburg’s transition to electric heavy-duty vehicles, ensuring a sustainable, efficient, and reliable energy supply aligned with the city’s growing electrification requirements.
Description
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Version
Published version
Access right on openHSU
Metadata only access