Assessment of bus depot infrastructure under various uncertainties to maximize system reliability

Abstract

Designing the infrastructure of bus depots involves numerous factors and considerations, but it is often subject to uncertainties that can affect the efficiency, cost, and overall performance of the depots. This study analyzes various sources of possible uncertainties encountered during the design phase of bus depots and highlights their potential impact. Generally, uncertainties in bus depot infrastructure design can arise from several aspects, including technological advancements and regulatory changes. Also, financial constraints and evolving operational requirements play an important role. The adoption of emerging technologies, such as electric buses, introduces uncertainties regarding the charging infrastructure, energy storage capacity, and compatibility with existing depot layouts. This study considers operational uncertainties, such as changes in the loading of transformers or the occurrence of blackouts, which consequently pose challenges to depot design. This is realized by employing many sensitivity case studies to evaluate various operation and design options under different uncertainty scenarios. The analysis in this study can be used to calculate the loading of transformers at bus depots in advance. Additionally, it is possible to estimate the required stationary battery in the bus depot for supplying the buses during different blackout times.